Saturday, November 04, 2006

Speaker Pelosi?
I don't think so, and haven't.

I'll admit that I haven't been particularly active this campaign season. A big part of that is because I don't feel the pessimism the way a lot of Republicans do right now.

And I haven't yet this year. Why?

Well, Dean Barnett does a pretty good job of explaining my position: I just don't trust the polls.

My reasoning? Basically, I think that the pollsters are hearing a a lot of frustration with Congress, and interpreting that as an anti-incumbent pattern. They're then reinterpreting that as an anti-incumbent party (i.e. anti-Republican) trend.

I think this makes too many leaps of logic.

I also look at the people around me: the Republicans I know are pissed at the Republican Party, but have no intention of voting for Democrats, or of staying home. The Democrats I know (which is most of the people I know) are even more pissed at the Republican Party. But the Dems split, and they split about evenly—some are pissed and supporting the Democrat candidates full-throat, some are pissed and fed up with the whole system.

So, I think Barnett's right, though for slightly different reasons. I think the Republicans will turn out stronger than they're currently getting credit for, but because of different voter emotional responses more than because of voter turnout efforts. I also think that the polls are off, but not because they underrepresent Republicans—more because they think too highly of themselves.

I guess we'll see on Tuesday...

UPDATE [11/5/2006 - 22:21]: Mickey Kaus has evidence that the polls are starting to move in the direction I expected. Dems, get ready for a disappointing day...

1 comment:

Jenn of the Jungle said...

Nancy Pel-Ho-Si, Speaker... NO, NO, NO....if there is a god, please, no.

Um, I feel better now. Hey, call my radio show tonight!!!!