Thursday, October 13, 2005

The Good, the Bad, and the Really Really Wet [UPDATES BELOW]
Ok, so mostly just the third of that series. I stole the picture at the left from The Man's excellent post concerning the extreme weather we've been having here in the New York area the past few days. Even though I live in Connecticut, I feel it's pretty applicable at this point.

Why? Because my house may very well flood today.

Let's hope that doesn't happen—but renting a little cottage on the beach comes with its risks. Several houses on my street did flood last night, and people had to be pulled out by fire trucks and national guardsmen in military trucks.

So how will we know if my house floods? Well, for one thing, I'll be home before the next high tide (I hope), so I'll be there to keep an eye on things. But for your reference, if the little green line in the image to the right goes about 3 feet at high tide, my house is probably flooding. We won't know until tonight, but it should be interesting. I'll post a new image every couple of hours. The current image is as of 11:30 AM.

UPDATE [10/13/2005 - 14:13]: The new chart is posted at the left. As you can see, the residual (green line) was falling for a while. Unfortunately, Weather.com is predicting increasing winds through the rest of the afternoon, and the tide is about to hit its nadir and start rising. This all combines for a less-than-ideal situation. Everybody cross your fingers some more.

For those that are curious, here is the current flood warning, issued by the National Weather Service:

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A PERSISTENT AND STRONG EASTERLY FETCH OF WIND HAS CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THIS HAS ACTED TO PILE WATER INTO LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND...AS WELL AS PECONIC BAY. TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM 2 TO LOCALLY 3 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THESE TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...MAINLY DURING THIS EARLY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.
I'll keep you posted.

UPDATE [10/13/2005 - 15:32]: The Man has an explanation for this ridiculous weather: Plame it on the Rain. I think he might be on to something—e is, after all, part of the New York elite.

UPDATE [10/13/2005 - 20:07]: It looks like we'll be ok. High tide is in less than 20 minutes, and—as you can see in the most recent chart, posted to the left—the tide has been running pretty consistently at 1.7 feet above normal, which is not enough to flood. It was a small bullet, and aimed off-target, but we've dodged it anyway. The winds are supposed to increase tonight, but off-sync with high tide, so I'm not terribly concerned.

I'll let you know how it turns out. Oh, and in case you're curious, I've posted a picture of my house below (it's the one in the red circle). The blue line is a typical high tide, the orange is a high high tide, the green is where the water was last night at high tide, and red is how far it needed to go to cross the point of no return and run down to the house. Though it is obviously at least a couple of yards, it's at most a difference of six vertical inches between where the water was and where it could have been to spell disaster.

3 comments:

Dave Justus said...

I'm torn between wishing you the best and indulging in schadenfreude since you live on the beach and I dont!

The Man said...

Don't Playa-hate...if this rain keeps up we will all have beachfront homes.

Cookie's Boss said...

Time to invest in a surfboard.