Friday, February 06, 2004

Marginal Revolution: Red books and blue books (via Andrew Sullivan)

This is intense, and connected to my previous post, though I'm not sure how to correlate the two. It seems that the left and right in this country don't even read the same books anymore. This graphic helps prove it.

TCS: Tech Central Station - A New Politics (via InstaPundit): "A realignment is taking place in the politics of this country and indeed of the world at large. It is increasingly difficult to define the meanings of left and right, liberal and conservative."

Beth and I were discussing this just the other day. It's an interesting progression that we've both noticed. It's why I might not vote for Bush. Worth reading.

Thursday, February 05, 2004

Lead, Don't Divide - John F. Kerry

A speech made by Kerry from the floor of the Senate in '92. I hope that Beth has passed on the link to my blog to Whitney, because I'd like to hear his comments.

Wednesday, February 04, 2004

Slow news day, busy class day. I didn't come across anything worth posting. Ricin, meh; Kerry's wins, meh; everything else, meh. Hopefully tomorrow will be better.

Tuesday, February 03, 2004

As the night progresses,I'll be listing the different between my predictions and the actual results, in the formula Prediction-Actual=Posting


ArizonaDelawareMissouriNew Mexico
Kerry-2%
Dean1%
Clark2%
Edwards.5%
Lieberman0%
Kucinich-1%
Sharpton-0.5%
Kerry-6%
Dean4%
Clark3%
Edwards-1%
Lieberman1%
Kucinich-1%
Sharpton3%
Kerry4%
Dean1%
Clark3%
Edwards-8%
Lieberman2%
Kucinich0%
Sharpton4%
Kerry0%
Dean6%
Clark-4%
Edwards10%
Lieberman1%
Kucinich-1%
Sharpton0%
North DakotaOklahomaSouth Carolina
Kerry2%
Dean2%
Clark-6%
Edwards2%
Lieberman2%
Kucinich-2%
Sharpton0%
Kerry4%
Dean5%
Clark-2%
Edwards-5%
Lieberman-1%
Kucinich0%
Sharpton0%
Kerry-3%
Dean8.5%
Clark4%
Edwards-11.5%
Lieberman3%
Kucinich1%
Sharpton-1%


Total Off: 135 percentage points across 7 states.
AZ, MO, OK, SC: 78 percentage points across 4 states.

TIME.com: Why I'm Rooting for Dean -- Andrew Sullivan: "What's more, Dean's insistence that war against Saddam was wrong strikes me as morally and strategically misguided. His loose accusations of lying in the White House, his airing of notions that George W. Bush had a warning about 9/11, his bad temper and his occasional nastiness are all reasons to back his opponents.
So why do I keep coming back to the fireplug from Vermont? No, I'm not cynically trying to engineer a Bush landslide. And, no, it's not because John Kerry seems such a tired and faded figure (although that's part of it). I just think that the Democrats' sudden panic about Dean's electability is overblown and that the urge to find someone more superficially 'presidential' is a trap."


Looks like Mr. Sullivan is dealing with some of the same personal issues as I am. He's much more eloquent in expressing them, but this is basically what I've been dancing around in my own mind. I even found myself admitting the other night that I could vote for Howard Dean, should he win the nomination and Bush not win me back over the next 9 months.

UPDATE: On further reading, I decided that I should also highlight:"And Dean is a conviction politician. Like Margaret Thatcher, he may command the respect even of those who disagree with him. He once told the New Yorker, "I think the problem with the Democratic Party in general is that they've been so afraid to lose they're willing to say whatever it takes to win. And once you're willing to say whatever it takes to win, you lose." That's a brilliant analysis of what ails the Democrats — and it's why, even under Clinton, they saw their congressional power ebb and collapse. If Dean is a doctor, he's got the diagnosis dead right."

I will try to post more, either today or tomorrow, on how I'm personally feeling about Dean right now -- though, after today, it could be a moot point.

UPDATE: Proof that W may be making efforts to win me back:
OpinionJournal - Deficit Matters: "For the first time in his Presidency--and the first time in Washington since 1995--Mr. Bush is requesting that domestic, non-defense spending be restrained. This is only a proposal, and we won't know if the President means it until he shows he's willing to veto something. But the request does suggest that grassroots Republican anger at runaway spending is finally getting noticed at the White House."

YET ANOTHER UPDATE: DRUDGE REPORT has less-than positive exit-polling numbers for Dean:
"AZ Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13.
MO Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10
SC Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10
OK Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28
DE Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11"

Michael Novak on Iraq & Combat Casualties on National Review Online (via InstaPundit): "These 343 (not 500) combat deaths, furthermore, need to be set in context. During 2003, the number of homicides in Chicago was 599, in New York City 596, in Los Angeles 505, in Detroit 361, in Philadelphia 347, in Baltimore 271, in Houston 276, and in Washington 247. That makes 3,002 murders in only eight cities."

Worth reading the whole thing.
BUT, the media has jumped to 500 deaths, ok, it's only 343 combat, and 498 total; their point is still not that far off. Also, how many non-coalition deaths have there been in Iraq? 500 is not the murder rate in Iraq, it's the soldier death rate.

Zogby News!

Newest Zogby numbers are up -- I took a gamble on Oklahoma that Dean would take Clark, and that doesn't look likely. Other than that, most of my predictions seem fairly accurate...

Monday, February 02, 2004

Keep your eye on this page, as I'll be making my predictions for tomorrow's primaries throughout the day...


ArizonaDelawareMissouriNew Mexico
Kerry41%
Dean15%
Clark29%
Edwards7.5%
Lieberman6%
Kucinich1%
Sharpton0.5%
Kerry44%
Dean14%
Clark13%
Edwards10%
Lieberman12%
Kucinich0%
Sharpton9%
Kerry55%
Dean10%
Clark7%
Edwards17%
Lieberman6%
Kucinich<1%
Sharpton4%
Kerry38%
Dean25%
Clark18%
Edwards10%
Lieberman4%
Kucinich4%
Sharpton0%

North DakotaOklahomaSouth Carolina
Kerry52%
Dean14%
Clark18%
Edwards12%
Lieberman3%
Kucinich1%
Sharpton0%
Kerry31%
Dean9%
Clark28%
Edwards25%
Lieberman5%
Kucinich1%
Sharpton1%
Kerry27%
Dean13.5%
Clark11%
Edwards33.5%
Lieberman6%
Kucinich1%
Sharpton9%

Op-ed Columnist: Budgets of Mass Destruction: "the Democrats should still follow his lead and make this their campaign mantra: 'Is your future better off now than it was four years ago?' That's what's on people's minds. It should be coupled with the bumper sticker: 'Read My Lips: No New Services. Bush Gave All the Money Away.' And it should be backed up with a responsible Democratic alternative on both taxes and spending."

I need someone to explain to me how it's reckless to let people keep their own money. The Republicans did a lousy job of controlling the tax cut debate, and now they're paying for it. We allowed the Liberals to treat it as if the tax cuts consisted of Bush handing money to people, when, in reality, it is simply preventing them from giving it up in the first place.

Zogby News!
Zogby's newest polling data (for the period January 29-31) is up here. Kerry is on Edwards's heels in SC, leading slightly in OK, and dominating in both AZ and MO. This could be over soon.

Sunday, February 01, 2004

AOL Presidential Match Guide

Found this through Andrew Sullivan. No big surprises -- Bush came out way on top, then Lieberman, then Edwards, Kerry, Clark, Dean, Sharpton, Kucinich. Now, what scares me: I have a 36% match with Kucinich! What views could I possibly share with Kucinich that makes for a 36% agreement??

[copied from my post on diet coke for breakfast]