Wednesday, November 03, 2004

As it stands now
As it looks right now, I've gotten three states wrong: Minnesota, Hawaii, and probably New Hampshire. Ohio, it looks like, will break for Bush. As more results continue to come in, President Bush's lead seems likely to expand. Right now, in fact, it seems that the President is far enough ahead that even with Ohio's provisional ballots, his lead cannot be overcome.

As Tim Russert just said on NBC, even if Bush lets Ohio go to Kerry, it is very possible for the President to reach the required 270, sometime in the next hour. This would probably force the Kerry campaign to abandon any efforts to take Ohio, and in turn concede the election overall. Assuming these remain the only states that I end up guessing incorrectly, and Ohio stays with the President, the final tally will be 287 EC votes for Bush, and 247 for Kerry. This is still, by any measure, an unexpected landslide for the President. Stay tuned, and we'll see what comes of it.

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