Friday, October 29, 2004

Something interesting is happening...
The Weekly Standard has a story today about a meeting conducted by Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist. He says a lot of interesting things, including what I've suggested recently about Bush not trying to appeal to swing voters. But here's the bit that grabbed me: "Trying to avoid any questions on the potential for legal wrangling post-election, Dowd said he expected the election to be decided on Election Night. He also didn't talk much about Ohio or Pennsylvania, which he said was 'dead even.' Instead, he placed emphasis on Michigan, a state to which both Bush and Gore devoted little time and resources four years ago. 'Residents in traditionally Democratic areas [in Michigan] are slowly considering themselves Republicans,' Dowd explained. 'If we win in Michigan, Senator Kerry can't win the White House--that's a reality,' he later added."

I found that really interesting when I read it late last night, because I hadn't heard much of anything about Michigan, and I hadn't expected it to be in play. But sure enough, I look at the Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 for today, and discover that Michigan has been moved into the "Barely Bush" column. Who would've thought that possible except Matthew Dowd?

UPDATE [10/29/2004 - 15:01]: While scanning Real Clear Politics, I came across the following:
Bush J[ob] A[pproval]: 50.2 Approve/46.8 Disapprove
Fav/Unfav: Bush: 52/45 | Kerry: 51/46

People have long been saying that Bush had to be at 50% by election day in order to win. Well, it seems like he may be doing just that. All EC polling data I've seen suggests Bush is trending upward, and his approval ratings are also trending upward. Kerry is not necessarily falling back, but he has reached a plateau. As I said earlier, I will make my final predictions on Sunday night, but this information will certainly factor in.

No comments: