Thursday, September 30, 2004

ADV syndrome continues to haunt Kerry
For those who aren't up on my current terminology (i.e. everyone but me), ADV syndrome is Angry Democratic Voter syndrome. I've been talking for several months about how the Dems are in "Anybody but Bush" mode, and how that'll hurt Kerry, and the current polls are bearing that out:

"Pennsylvania: Bush 49, Kerry 46 (Gallup - LV)
Pennsylvania: Kerry 49, Bush 45 (Gallup - RV)
Ohio: Bush 49, Kerry 47 (Gallup - LV)
Ohio: Kerry 49, Bush 46 (Gallup - RV)
Florida: Bush 52, Kerry 43 (Gallup - LV)
Florida: Bush 49, Kerry 44 (Gallup - RV) "

You see, the problem is, these angry Dems aren't angry enough to actually vote. More than anything, they're turned off and turned away by the system. Just look at these 3 states, which are important battle grounds. Bush seems to be winning Florida either way, but among registered voters in the other two states, Kerry has an average lead of 3.5 points. Among likely voters, however, the average is 2.5 points in favor of Bush. NOT a good sign for Kerry, agreed?


Tanstaafl said...

But Brian, don't you know that the Gallup pole is biased favoring President Bush?!?!:

yaledems said...


Lots and lots has been made of Gallup's faulty methodology, which essentially assumes that either Democrats will suffer a seven-point turnout difference against the GOP this November, or that the GOP will ever hit 40%? Both events are considered unlikely, to put it mildly, by nonpartisan pollsters like Zogby.

But another thing to point out is that, in general, "Likely Voter" doesn't mean they call you up and you say, "Gosh, I sure am likely to vote!" Generally, Likely Voters are voters who have voted in the last X federal elections, X usually being between 2 and 4. So, LV doesn't count anyone who's never voted before. Given that Democrats have amassed a huge advantage in voters registered since 2000, I'd say that Kerry's slim margin of defeat in LV polls actually undercounts Kerry voters, and thus is relatively good news for him.

RFTR said...

All I know is that Gallup is who had Bush winning in electoral votes in 2000, and who had Kerry winning Iowa this year in the primaries. That says something.

Anonymous said...

Gallup lol

yaledems said...

All I know is that Gallup is who had Bush winning in electoral votes in 2000That's true. What you neglect to mention is that Gallup also had him winning the popular vote.

By 13 points.

Which, incidentally, is the same margin their most controversial poll has him up by now.

There's a joke to be made on your use of the phrase "all I know is," but I won't make it, because - like John Kerry in tonight's debate - I am a bigger man. Suffice it to say, if you're hanging your Bush Victory Hat on a Gallup poll, you're doing something objectively unwise.